$PNRA Panera Earnings, Price Target

Panera Bread (PNRA) earnings are out. 

- Revenues & eps met consensus.

 ......................Q4 2011       Estimate*     Q4 2010

 Revenue       $496m          $499m        $428m 

 EPS..................$1.42         $1.42         $1.21

                                           

 - Forecast Q1 eps $1.33 - $1.35 ( was $1.28 consensus, slight raise), but....

 - Forecast 2012 eps $5.50 to $5.55 (was $5.52 consensus, so not a raise)

- Margins are down substantially.....to 12.6% from 14.2%.

- Same store sales increased 5.9% at Panera-owned locations.... 3.2% at franchisees

Even at a rich 20 forward PE, this gives price target for the stock well under $120. 

I believe analysts will downgrade the stock in the morning across the board. They were looking for blowout numbers, as were investors who have bid the stock up to an all-time high with a very high earnings multiple.

Here's the Wedbush analyst on CNBC who will whack it on a downgrade giving you a heads-up just before the report came out. His target was $130 before the report with 18% growth. Nothing in the report indicates an improvement on that growth.

Trading at $156 after hours, and I believe vulnerable to a $145 support until the next report, on downgrades in the morning. Great chain, no China play, huge run up.

And.... almost forgot: the CFO just announced a lateral move to IACI. While he's not being walked out by security (in fact he's on through March), this is not a vote of confidence.

Sell the stock and buy at $120 later this year.