Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Cramer loves Diamond Foods (DMND)

Diamond Foods (DMND) just imploded after hours. Accounting scandal, executives whacked, the whole gamut. P&G about to yank the Pringles deal per reports....brutal.

Stock is down from $36 to $20, after trading at $80 not too long ago.
And here, you can get a eyeful of Jim Cramer telling you how much he loves it.

Awesome. DMND was $73 when he broadcast this. "I'm a believer!"

Cramer loves DMND!   (CNBC Video)

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

$PNRA Panera Earnings, Price Target

Panera Bread (PNRA) earnings are out. 

- Revenues & eps met consensus.
 ......................Q4 2011       Estimate*     Q4 2010
 Revenue       $496m          $499m        $428m 
 EPS..................$1.42         $1.42         $1.21
 - Forecast Q1 eps $1.33 - $1.35 ( was $1.28 consensus, slight raise), but....
 - Forecast 2012 eps $5.50 to $5.55 (was $5.52 consensus, so not a raise)
- Margins are down 12.6% from 14.2%.

- Same store sales increased 5.9% at Panera-owned locations.... 3.2% at franchisees

Even at a rich 20 forward PE, this gives price target for the stock well under $120. 

I believe analysts will downgrade the stock in the morning across the board. They were looking for blowout numbers, as were investors who have bid the stock up to an all-time high with a very high earnings multiple.

Here's the Wedbush analyst on CNBC who will whack it on a downgrade giving you a heads-up just before the report came out. His target was $130 before the report with 18% growth. Nothing in the report indicates an improvement on that growth.

Trading at $156 after hours, and I believe vulnerable to a $145 support until the next report, on downgrades in the morning. Great chain, no China play, huge run up.

And.... almost forgot: the CFO just announced a lateral move to IACI. While he's not being walked out by security (in fact he's on through March), this is not a vote of confidence.

Sell the stock and buy at $120 later this year. 

Thursday, February 2, 2012

$VRTX Conference Call

Today's conference call link (5pm EST) for Vertex Pharma Q4 2011 earnings report....only company I know that has its Stock Symbol as it's WWW address...Wow they are focused on shareholder value!

- New CEO has started the spiel.. Incivek now in 9 EU countries as well as N. America
- Touting Hep C long term pipeline...Kalydeco...[just me or is that way too happy a name for a CF drug]
- Hope to start data submission for Kalydeco label expansion studies in 2013... [stock back over 40 as Jeff's dulcet tones sooth the savage twitter beasts]...CFO now going into the GAAP. Get yourself a beer.

--Q: Guidance.....seems to be slightly down (smart guy!)...5 questions, 1 guy, no cup.
--A: CFO quotes verbatim the guidance from PR (good boy!)...we may give further guidance on line items later....Incivek trajectory...initial high vol of patients that were waiting....confidence of achieving guidance [my note: let's say they beat slightly and get $1.8B 2012]

--Q: Flynn from Goldman up...Kalydeco 808 trial enrollment?
--A: on track
--Q: 809 design
--A: both homo and heterozygous...

--Q: From Sexiest Analyst so far (did not catch who)...can I take your temperature (on cap allocation)?
--A: run rate of EU royalty to pick up substantially in 2012....comfortable on hcv portfolio..."broadest and deepest" [yes, sexual tension high on this Q&A round]

--Q: Meachem from JPM (oops Mike in for Meachem)....
--A: Tip towards naive patient group....still patients from all types of backgrounds still coming in
[OK that sucked, sorry bout that]

--Q: Schoenbaum stand-in...[the big guy has better things to do]..[totally missed that Q, you get what you pay for, readers!....softball question of no importance]

--Q: Can you buy back royatlies from CF Foundation? + tax rate Question....
--A: "No comment" on CFF....non-GAAP info in PR shows true tax rate

--Q: (Leerink)....question garbeled....+ any sales from clinical supply?
--A: Majority of sales due to patients [lame, L-Swann!]

--Q; RBC Cap.....congrats on Kalydeco....will patients come on quickly....
--A: Predictable number of patients, all show up for care quarterly [very known population]...Rumors of canceling routine clinic checkups to bring in these patients

-- Q: UBS...another substitute...[VRTX is not a hot stock apparently].....Partners on Phase 3's?
--A: Hard to get to Phase 3, if we get there, we have resources to run them...could be revenue growth in mid comment on biz transactions (partners I assume)

--Q: Piper ("very excited" explains his $56 target)....guidance question...milestone questions (don't think Ted read the PR fully)
-- A: read the taxes will continue to be minimal...milestones recorded earlier 2011....Q3....Q4 was Mitsubishi, it's there in PR

--Q: Barclay's...."congrats"....warehousing of patients for interferon treatments
--A: too early to quantify if warehousing has occured, prolly minimal

--Q: JMP Sec......great quarter...growth to net for Kalydeco + changes in stocking Incivek
--A: minimal change in stocking Incivek, no impact......Kalydeco market split 60/40 commerc/ discounting on commercial
--Q: more questions she should have asked on K call other day...

--Q: Morgan Stanley....gross sales Incivek?....combo CF study, any Pk related interactions?
--A: Q4 slightly above Q3 on Incivek...widening of gross to net 2012 (govt channel impact) data released around showed safety....

--Q: Think Equity...congrats...CF study questions....
--A: Can't speculate on regulatory views...endpoints will be standard....multiple dose levels in 661 combo study

--Q: Brean Murray (not Aschoff).....guidance questions on gross to net (again? oh Brean sub...)
--A: repeats earlier answers about commerc/govt split, discounting.....royalties going fwd....mitsu was a milestone not a further $ from Mitsu

--Q: Cannacord squeezed in (bad boy!)....Phase 1 trial design (really? Yawn)
--A: Vee have veys of makiing dis happen (ok my translation...zzzzzzzz).....Incivek 222 data mid-year...exciting....more data to help you make good judgement (oh boy)

Call over. Laters.