Vertex (VRTX) just got an early approval for their new Cystic Fibrosis drug. Key points:
- only 1200 patient target population
- $294K per patient
- $350M peak annual US sales, which should add $2B to market cap, not counting EU
- Leads to more favorable chances of same drug being approved for combo therapies later this year
That $294K price can be justified by the targeted aspect. Unlike DNDN's Provenge at $93K and a 33% chance of "working", this high flyer will only be prescribed to a very specific group of CF sufferers with a particular genetic match. After the uproar about Provenge, this is welcome news.
VRTX is heavily shorted and already debatably undervalued based on 2012 sales of its Hep C drug, which should easily surpass $2B. Doubts exist about its shelf life past 2014 due to competition, but doubts exist for every drug in the FDA approval pipeline. The company should have a takeover value of $10B on Hep C alone.
Analysts have come out with targets over $55 this past week prior to the CF drug approval. VRTX is a good buy under $50, and there's that spectre of buyouts and short squeezes putting further upward pressure on it.
(Note: I am long VRTX common stock)
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Kyle Bass's Lawyer Lays down the Twitter Law
Kyle Bass' lawyer Chris Kirkpatrick has appeared on twitter as "@CKirkpatrickEsq" with a smackdown:
"@Ret_Earn I'm the real Kyle Bass' attorney. Immediately cease and desist from using Mr. Bass' name and likeness or I will take legal action"
Googling articles on Bass, sure enough this article from 2009 features Kirkpatrick defending Bass from a Forbes magazine negative mention.
Looking forward to more of controversial public figures having their lawyers defend them on Twitter. It's the new savage battleground and legal pandora's box.
Now on to trying figure out why Bass is going long mortgage companies like PPH....hedging?
"@Ret_Earn I'm the real Kyle Bass' attorney. Immediately cease and desist from using Mr. Bass' name and likeness or I will take legal action"
Googling articles on Bass, sure enough this article from 2009 features Kirkpatrick defending Bass from a Forbes magazine negative mention.
Looking forward to more of controversial public figures having their lawyers defend them on Twitter. It's the new savage battleground and legal pandora's box.
Now on to trying figure out why Bass is going long mortgage companies like PPH....hedging?
Monday, January 30, 2012
Overstock's Byrne Should Switch Careers
One of my favorite business blogs is Deep Capture, a ragtag group of what appears to be volunteers, a couple of journalists on the run, and a force of nature CEO, Patrick Byrne.
Byrne has created quite a group of ardent fans amongst Wall Streeters and the scribes who feed from them. This fellow, who has devoted years and 90% of his recent journalism to Byrne, seems particularly enamoured with him. Deep Capture is over the top, as many expose' blogs try to be, although this one was recently shut down by a Canadian court decree, so it has that going for in the drama department.
I've watched Byrne over the years become a political pundit on television, as well as in his local papers. I can't say I agree with his politics, or invest in his current company, Overstock.com, which appears to be on cruising speed on a service road next to the Amazon highway.
Byrne has been breaking even for quite some time; perhaps it's time to move on to something he appears to be enthusiastic about: investigative journalism. I'm sure Overstock is a nice little business providing a good living for hundreds of fine Utah folk. But this season's left-over ski goggles can be peddled by someone a lot more boring.
(Note: This blogger has no investments in any of the companies mentioned here)
Byrne has created quite a group of ardent fans amongst Wall Streeters and the scribes who feed from them. This fellow, who has devoted years and 90% of his recent journalism to Byrne, seems particularly enamoured with him. Deep Capture is over the top, as many expose' blogs try to be, although this one was recently shut down by a Canadian court decree, so it has that going for in the drama department.
I've watched Byrne over the years become a political pundit on television, as well as in his local papers. I can't say I agree with his politics, or invest in his current company, Overstock.com, which appears to be on cruising speed on a service road next to the Amazon highway.
Byrne has been breaking even for quite some time; perhaps it's time to move on to something he appears to be enthusiastic about: investigative journalism. I'm sure Overstock is a nice little business providing a good living for hundreds of fine Utah folk. But this season's left-over ski goggles can be peddled by someone a lot more boring.
(Note: This blogger has no investments in any of the companies mentioned here)
Salt: A World History. Must Read for Commodities Traders
Must read for Commodities investors and anyone else with any historical curiosity whatsoever. Or if you ever wondered where "worth his salt", jerky, or your dad's nasty sardines habit came from. It was once the Gold of the civilized world.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
WTF - Jimmy Kimmel & Marc Maron talk
WTF - Jimmy Kimmel & Marc talk diets (click here, WTFbuddies)
Marc Maron's come back from oblivion to have the best interview podcast out there. While he interviews almost always comedians, these interviews are not morning radio shock jock material. They're more like "In Treatment"....although Maron is a bit less stoic, or Irish, than Gabriel Byrne.
Hopefully he gets into Kimmel's Own Private Idaho, his narcolepsy....which is not what happened to G.I. Jane the other night. It's that hilarious habit of falling asleep anytime anywhere. Kind of like your drunk Uncle Bob but without the bitch beater t-shirt.
Marc Maron's come back from oblivion to have the best interview podcast out there. While he interviews almost always comedians, these interviews are not morning radio shock jock material. They're more like "In Treatment"....although Maron is a bit less stoic, or Irish, than Gabriel Byrne.
Hopefully he gets into Kimmel's Own Private Idaho, his narcolepsy....which is not what happened to G.I. Jane the other night. It's that hilarious habit of falling asleep anytime anywhere. Kind of like your drunk Uncle Bob but without the bitch beater t-shirt.
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Actual photo from Maron's interview of Kimmel
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Friday, January 27, 2012
Facebook Facebook Facebook. IPO, meet shark ramp....
The financial media is quite excited about the pending Facebook IPO. While I believe its timing is ideal, for current Facebook shareholders, it won't be for buyers of the stock when it goes public.
If you're a Facebook user, you've probably noticed your "friends" list is growing more slowly these days, and the kids you know aren't very happy about parents and grandparents taking it over. They've moved on to Google +, or some other social network you don't know about. Probably back to MySpace, which was Facebook before Facebook.
You've also probably noticed yourself growing a bit tired of Facebook use. Sure you post the occasional family photo, or talk smack during the big game. but you find yourself using it less and less if you've already been using it for more than a year.
I don't recommend buying Facebook stock on IPO day. If you must, flip it as soon as you can. Ask your teenagers - Facebook has jumped the shark. Just don't ask them what they're using instead of Facebook now (pssst, MSNBC says it's probably Twitter)... Or if they know who Arthur Fonzarelli is...
If you're a Facebook user, you've probably noticed your "friends" list is growing more slowly these days, and the kids you know aren't very happy about parents and grandparents taking it over. They've moved on to Google +, or some other social network you don't know about. Probably back to MySpace, which was Facebook before Facebook.
You've also probably noticed yourself growing a bit tired of Facebook use. Sure you post the occasional family photo, or talk smack during the big game. but you find yourself using it less and less if you've already been using it for more than a year.
I don't recommend buying Facebook stock on IPO day. If you must, flip it as soon as you can. Ask your teenagers - Facebook has jumped the shark. Just don't ask them what they're using instead of Facebook now (pssst, MSNBC says it's probably Twitter)... Or if they know who Arthur Fonzarelli is...
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| Facebook IPO heading for the ramp |
Kyle Bass & Don't Believe the Stock Market is Back Hype
So lately the stock market is "melting up". Before you think about throwing your entire 401k back into shark infested waters, take an hour, yes an hour, and watch this....I present Mr Kyle Bass.
Seriously, it will cause you to start questioning the "all's well" siren song being put out by CNBC and other mass media lately....
Seriously, it will cause you to start questioning the "all's well" siren song being put out by CNBC and other mass media lately....
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