$PNRA Panera Earnings, Price Target

Panera Bread (PNRA) earnings are out. 

- Revenues & eps met consensus.

 ......................Q4 2011       Estimate*     Q4 2010

 Revenue       $496m          $499m        $428m 

 EPS..................$1.42         $1.42         $1.21

                                           

 - Forecast Q1 eps $1.33 - $1.35 ( was $1.28 consensus, slight raise), but....

 - Forecast 2012 eps $5.50 to $5.55 (was $5.52 consensus, so not a raise)

- Margins are down substantially.....to 12.6% from 14.2%.

- Same store sales increased 5.9% at Panera-owned locations.... 3.2% at franchisees

Even at a rich 20 forward PE, this gives price target for the stock well under $120. 

I believe analysts will downgrade the stock in the morning across the board. They were looking for blowout numbers, as were investors who have bid the stock up to an all-time high with a very high earnings multiple.

Here's the Wedbush analyst on CNBC who will whack it on a downgrade giving you a heads-up just before the report came out. His target was $130 before the report with 18% growth. Nothing in the report indicates an improvement on that growth.

Trading at $156 after hours, and I believe vulnerable to a $145 support until the next report, on downgrades in the morning. Great chain, no China play, huge run up.

And.... almost forgot: the CFO just announced a lateral move to IACI. While he's not being walked out by security (in fact he's on through March), this is not a vote of confidence.

Sell the stock and buy at $120 later this year. 

Facebook Facebook Facebook. IPO, meet shark ramp....

The financial media is quite excited about the pending Facebook IPO. While I believe its timing is ideal, for current Facebook shareholders, it won't be for buyers of the stock when it goes public.

If you're a Facebook user, you've probably noticed your "friends" list is growing more slowly these days, and the kids you know aren't very happy about parents and grandparents taking it over. They've moved on to Google +, or some other social network you don't know about. Probably back to MySpace, which was Facebook before Facebook.

You've also probably noticed yourself growing a bit tired of Facebook use. Sure you post the occasional family photo, or talk smack during the big game. but you find yourself using it less and less if you've already been using it for more than a year.

I don't recommend buying Facebook stock on IPO day. If you must, flip it as soon as you can. Ask your teenagers - Facebook has jumped the shark. Just don't ask them what they're using instead of Facebook now (pssst, MSNBC says it's probably Twitter)... Or if they know who Arthur Fonzarelli is...

Facebook IPO heading for the ramp

Kyle Bass & Don't Believe the Stock Market is Back Hype

So lately the stock market is "melting up".  Before you think about throwing your entire 401k back into shark infested waters, take an hour, yes an hour, and watch this....I present Mr Kyle Bass.

Seriously, it will cause you to start questioning the "all's well" siren song being put out by CNBC and other mass media lately....