$VRTX Conference Call

Today's conference call link (5pm EST) for Vertex Pharma Q4 2011 earnings report....only company I know that has its Stock Symbol as it's WWW address...Wow they are focused on shareholder value!

- New CEO has started the spiel.. Incivek now in 9 EU countries as well as N. America
- Touting Hep C long term pipeline...Kalydeco...[just me or is that way too happy a name for a CF drug]
- Hope to start data submission for Kalydeco label expansion studies in 2013... [stock back over 40 as Jeff's dulcet tones sooth the savage twitter beasts]...CFO now going into the GAAP. Get yourself a beer.

--Q: Guidance.....seems to be slightly down (smart guy!)...5 questions, 1 guy, no cup.
--A: CFO quotes verbatim the guidance from PR (good boy!)...we may give further guidance on line items later....Incivek trajectory...initial high vol of patients that were waiting....confidence of achieving guidance [my note: let's say they beat slightly and get $1.8B 2012]

--Q: Flynn from Goldman up...Kalydeco 808 trial enrollment?
--A: on track
--Q: 809 design
--A: both homo and heterozygous...

--Q: From Sexiest Analyst so far (did not catch who)...can I take your temperature (on cap allocation)?
--A: run rate of EU royalty to pick up substantially in 2012....comfortable on hcv portfolio..."broadest and deepest" [yes, sexual tension high on this Q&A round]

--Q: Meachem from JPM (oops Mike in for Meachem)....
--A: Tip towards naive patient group....still patients from all types of backgrounds still coming in
[OK that sucked, sorry bout that]

--Q: Schoenbaum stand-in...[the big guy has better things to do]..[totally missed that Q, you get what you pay for, readers!....softball question of no importance]

--Q: Can you buy back royatlies from CF Foundation? + tax rate Question....
--A: "No comment" on CFF....non-GAAP info in PR shows true tax rate

--Q: (Leerink)....question garbeled....+ any sales from clinical supply?
--A: Majority of sales due to patients [lame, L-Swann!]

--Q; RBC Cap.....congrats on Kalydeco....will patients come on quickly....
--A: Predictable number of patients, all show up for care quarterly [very known population]...Rumors of canceling routine clinic checkups to bring in these patients

-- Q: UBS...another substitute...[VRTX is not a hot stock apparently].....Partners on Phase 3's?
--A: Hard to get to Phase 3, if we get there, we have resources to run them...could be revenue growth in mid decade...no comment on biz transactions (partners I assume)

--Q: Piper ("very excited" explains his $56 target)....guidance question...milestone questions (don't think Ted read the PR fully)
-- A: read the PR....cash taxes will continue to be minimal...milestones recorded earlier 2011....Q3....Q4 was Mitsubishi, it's there in PR

--Q: Barclay's...."congrats"....warehousing of patients for interferon treatments
--A: too early to quantify if warehousing has occured, prolly minimal

--Q: JMP Sec......great quarter...growth to net for Kalydeco + changes in stocking Incivek
--A: minimal change in stocking Incivek, no impact......Kalydeco market split 60/40 commerc/govt...no discounting on commercial
--Q: more questions she should have asked on K call other day...

--Q: Morgan Stanley....gross sales Incivek?....combo CF study, any Pk related interactions?
--A: Q4 slightly above Q3 on Incivek...widening of gross to net 2012 (govt channel impact)...no data released around Pk.....study showed safety....

--Q: Think Equity...congrats...CF study questions....
--A: Can't speculate on regulatory views...endpoints will be standard....multiple dose levels in 661 combo study

--Q: Brean Murray (not Aschoff).....guidance questions on gross to net (again? oh Brean sub...)
--A: repeats earlier answers about commerc/govt split, discounting.....royalties going fwd....mitsu was a milestone not a royalty....no further $ from Mitsu

--Q: Cannacord squeezed in (bad boy!)....Phase 1 trial design (really? Yawn)
--A: Vee have veys of makiing dis happen (ok my translation...zzzzzzzz).....Incivek 222 data mid-year...exciting....more data to help you make good judgement (oh boy)

Call over. Laters.

Vertex (VRTX) Will Get Back to $50 Quickly

Vertex (VRTX) just got an early approval for their new Cystic Fibrosis drug. Key points:

- only 1200 patient target population
- $294K per patient
- $350M peak annual US sales, which should add $2B to market cap, not counting EU
- Leads to more favorable chances of same drug being approved for combo therapies later this year

That $294K price can be justified by the targeted aspect. Unlike DNDN's Provenge at $93K and a 33% chance of "working", this high flyer will only be prescribed to a very specific group of CF sufferers with a particular genetic match. After the uproar about Provenge, this is welcome news.

VRTX is heavily shorted and already debatably undervalued based on 2012 sales of its Hep C drug, which should easily surpass $2B. Doubts exist about its shelf life past 2014 due to competition, but doubts exist for every drug in the FDA approval pipeline. The company should have a takeover value of $10B on Hep C alone.

Analysts have come out with targets over $55 this past week prior to the CF drug approval. VRTX is a good buy under $50, and there's that spectre of buyouts and short squeezes putting further upward pressure on it.

(Note: I am long VRTX common stock)